LiquaryData
HL

July Fed funds decision

Outcome

No change

Listed . Settled , lived 39d 12h 47m. Deployed by Hyperliquid

Measure

HIP-4 / Hyperliquid

Odds

1,800snapshots captured
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20 Jun10 Jul30 Jul
  • No change
  • Decrease
  • Increase

Probability rebuilt from the order-book archive: the midpoint of the book at each change, replayed from every order placed, resized and pulled. It begins where the market opened, not where our capture did. Hyperliquid publishes no odds history of its own.

Volume

$4.40M

$6.00M incl. settlement

Outcomes

3

Traders

554

7,928 trades

Best winning entry

$0.58

1.7x

Biggest fill

$247.7k

Fees

$47

Open interest

$2.49M

Settlement & sources

Who settled it

12 validators

  • 1ValiDAO——
  • 2B-Harvest——
  • 3Hyperbeat x P2P x Hypio——
  • 4CMI——
  • 5HypurrCorea - Spacebar x DeSpread——
  • 6Hyperdash——
  • 7HyperStake——
  • 8Enigma - Hypedexer.com X Meria——
  • 9Liquid Spirit x Hydromancer x Rekt Gang——
  • 10Nansen x HypurrCollective——
  • 11ASXN——
  • 12Purrposeful x HyBridge x PiP——

This market was settled in several actions as outcomes fell away; the votes below are the one that resolved it, on "No change". Delay is measured from the settlement action opening, at our 60-second indexing cadence; anything faster reads under a minute. Hyperliquid serves votes only while an action is in flight, so this is our stored copy.

Resolution rules

The question has three outcomes: No change, Decrease, or Increase. Exactly one outcome resolves to Yes and the other two resolve to No. The question resolves based on the lower bound of the target federal funds rate range announced by the Federal Reserve for the scheduled July 2026 FOMC meeting, currently scheduled for July 28-29, 2026. No change resolves to Yes if the lower bound of the target range announced in the FOMC statement, implementation note, press release, or other official Federal Reserve source for that meeting is identical to the lower bound of the target range in effect immediately before that decision. Decrease resolves to Yes if the announced lower bound is lower than the prior lower bound. Increase resolves to Yes if the announced lower bound is higher than the prior lower bound. If the scheduled meeting is canceled or postponed without a July 2026 FOMC rate decision, or if no official July 2026 FOMC statement or equivalent Federal Reserve decision source is released by 23:59 ET on September 16, 2026, No change resolves to Yes. Intermeeting rate changes outside the July meeting are ignored except to establish the lower bound in effect immediately before the July decision. If the Federal Reserve changes its policy-rate format, the closest official successor target named by the Federal Reserve is used. Resolution uses the initially released decision; later revisions after resolution are not considered.

All outcomes

3 outcomes