LiquaryData
HL

July Fed funds decision

Increase

See the full market

Outcome

No

Listed . Settled , lived 34d 15h 41m. Deployed by Hyperliquid, settled by validators

JSON data

Measure

HIP-4 / Hyperliquid

Odds

55,140snapshots captured
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20 Jun10 Jul30 Jul
  • Yes
  • No

Probability rebuilt from the order-book archive: the midpoint of the book at each change, replayed from every order placed, resized and pulled. It begins where the market opened, not where our capture did. Hyperliquid publishes no odds history of its own.

Volume, this outcome

$388.1k

$559.8k incl. settlement

Open interest

$265.5k

Traders0% of these trades happened after the market settled: the winner converging to $1, the losers draining. Real trades, but after the question was answered.

111

758 trades

Best winning entry

$0.63

1.6x

Biggest fill

$105.9k

Fees

$1

Validators

12

Settlement & sources

Who settled it

12 validators

  • 1ValiDAO——
  • 2B-Harvest——
  • 3Hyperbeat x P2P x Hypio——
  • 4CMI——
  • 5HypurrCorea - Spacebar x DeSpread——
  • 6Hyperdash——
  • 7HyperStake——
  • 8Enigma - Hypedexer.com X Meria——
  • 9Liquid Spirit x Hydromancer x Rekt Gang——
  • 10Nansen x HypurrCollective——
  • 11ASXN——
  • 12Purrposeful x HyBridge x PiP——

Delay is measured from the settlement action opening, at our 60-second indexing cadence; anything faster reads under a minute. Hyperliquid serves votes only while an action is in flight, so this is our stored copy.

Why it settled this way

The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, so the lower bound remained 3.50%.

Resolution rules

The question has three outcomes: No change, Decrease, or Increase. Exactly one outcome resolves to Yes and the other two resolve to No. The question resolves based on the lower bound of the target federal funds rate range announced by the Federal Reserve for the scheduled July 2026 FOMC meeting, currently scheduled for July 28-29, 2026. No change resolves to Yes if the lower bound of the target range announced in the FOMC statement, implementation note, press release, or other official Federal Reserve source for that meeting is identical to the lower bound of the target range in effect immediately before that decision. Decrease resolves to Yes if the announced lower bound is lower than the prior lower bound. Increase resolves to Yes if the announced lower bound is higher than the prior lower bound. If the scheduled meeting is canceled or postponed without a July 2026 FOMC rate decision, or if no official July 2026 FOMC statement or equivalent Federal Reserve decision source is released by 23:59 ET on September 16, 2026, No change resolves to Yes. Intermeeting rate changes outside the July meeting are ignored except to establish the lower bound in effect immediately before the July decision. If the Federal Reserve changes its policy-rate format, the closest official successor target named by the Federal Reserve is used. Resolution uses the initially released decision; later revisions after resolution are not considered.

Other outcomes on this market

3 outcomes

This market, as JSON

The same record, machine-readable: metadata, settlement and the odds history we captured while the market was live.

$ curl https://api.liquary.xyz/v1/markets/512.json